Sunday, December 19, 2010

Which party is dead?

This morning, I was reading my facebook feed, and I came across this link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x576454

It made the case that the Democratic party was dead or dying. What struck me about it, though, is that I often make the case that the Republican party is dying. My thought is that the Republican party has split into so many factions that we'll end up with results like those in 1860 and 1912. It has split into the Tea party, which I don't think can survive since it's basically the modern equivalent of the Whigs, not ideologically, but organizationally, which is really what killed the Whigs. Another faction is the party of No, which is probably the majority of Republicans today, who don't have any plans other than to say no to any and everything that the Democrats present. Then there are the dying (although I expect them to make gains soon) mainstream Republicans, who actually care about the country despite their conservative views. My hypothesis for 2012 is that somebody wins the GOP primary (no dur), and whichever end they will be from, the other end will not approve of the candidate, possibly throwing their support behind Obama, but more likely putting forth their own candidate, similar to the Northern and Southern Democrats in 1860 or the Republicans and the Bull Moose party in 1912. Now, obviously the parties were (more or less) reunified after 1860 and 1912, but this time, the Tea party is sort of what's both the "cool" conservatives and the most hated group in America, so I almost wonder if they'll survive and the Republicans will die, and then they will die later on, not unlike the Whigs. This could be very interesting.

So, which party is going to die?

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