Herman Cain

So, with the 2012 election coming up, and with my staunch no-stupidity policy for elections, I thought it would be fun to take a look at who is running and how nutso they are. Besides, I've been having some insomnia issues recently, and I feel like looking at the current Republican field could help with that.

So, I felt like an appropriate place to start would be Herman Cain, mostly because he's more interesting than many of the others (you probably shouldn't even bother reading when I get to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty). Now, Mr. Cain is an enigma, not because he's a racist nutjob (they all kind of are), but because he's black, yet still a racist nutjob. Now, I think he'll use this to his advantage in many ways, but I also think it will backfire on him.

Now, let's get one thing quite clear. Herman Cain IS a racist. Just look at this quote:

The role of Muslims in American society is for them to be allowed to practice their religion freely, which is part of our First Amendment. The role of Muslims in America is not to convert the rest of us to the Muslim religion. That I resent. Because we are a Judeo-Christian nation, from the fact that 85 percent of us are self-described Christians, or evangelicals, or practicing the Jewish faith. Eighty-five percent. One percent of the practicing religious believers in this country are Muslim.And so I push back and reject them trying to convert the rest of us. And based upon the little knowledge that I have of the Muslim religion, you know, they have an objective to convert all infidels or kill them. Now, I know that there are some peaceful Muslims who don't go around preaching or practicing that. Well, unfortunately, we can't sit back and tolerate the radical ones simply because we know that there are some of them who don't believe in that aspect of the Muslim religion. So their role is to be allowed to practice their religion freely, just like we should be allowed to practice our religion freely, and not try to convert the rest of us.

Well, Herm, I see exactly one accurate thing in that quote, and that is where you said, "the little knowledge that I have of the Muslim religion." You did a very good job of displaying that you know absolutely nothing about it. Rather, some people believe that, but that is true of nearly all religions, CHRISTIANITY INCLUDED. Ever hear of the crusades? And, I might add, those people who knock on your door to get you to convert are most certainly not Muslims. So, unless their only method of conversion is by making delicious food (which I could totally get behind), then Mr. Cain is on the wrong track here. Now, the problem with this is that he is blatantly racist, but Americans are idiots, and so we get the idea that a black guy couldn't be racist. This is clearly false, but Herman Cain can capitalize on that and be as racist as the little void he calls his heart desires.

Now, the other issue is the issue of the black vote. I could potentially see a full swing, a half swing, or no swing at all. Personally, I think there might be a very small swing, but most black people will stay faithful to Obama. Here's why: First of all, black people (for the most part) LOVE Obama. They saw him as a huge inspiration in 2008, and they still sort of see him as their savior, so to speak, and for a good reason. He was the first black president. That is a huge barrier to break. Now, should Cain win in 2012, he would become the second black president, which is not a particularly exciting honor. The barrier has already been broken. They still will like the first guy. Second of all, should Cain win the primary, he will be running in the general election against another black guy. That should even it out, but here's the thing, when it's been two white guys, black people have been overwhelmingly Democratic since FDR. Sure, they came out in droves for Obama, and we can praise the lord that Obama isn't a Republican, but if he's still running, then there is no compelling reason for them to switch over. Finally, a fairly large and dramatically increasing percentage of black people are becoming (or already are) Muslim, and, as we can tell, Cain is actively trying to get Muslims to not vote for him.

One complicating factor that Cain might try to capitalize on is that both of his parents were black, whereas Obama's mother did happen to be white. This might swing a few people, but I still don't think it will be a problem. My reasoning for that is that the title of "first president with two black parents" does not sound nearly as impressive as "first black president," which is an honor that only Obama will ever have. Not only that, but black people will still associate him as such, and they love him for that.

So, all and all, it seems unlikely that any effort that Herman Cain will make to capitalize on his race will either backfire or be highly ineffective. What that leaves is policy, and we have established that he is nuts, so that doesn't leave much of a chance. To compound that, it appears that most American racists happen to be Republicans, so that hurts Cain even more. So, I do not see him as a threat.

As of now, my ranking of who will win the primary (to be updated in each successive post):

1. Mitt Romney: 36.7%. I don't know how many of you have seen the ads for the Lifewise health plan of Oregon (I think it exists outside of Oregon), and their slogan is "boringly good." That fits Romney well. Not to say I think he's good, but he is the most moderate and diplomatic of the bunch.

2. Tim Pawlenty: 31.9%. Boringly good fits him too, but he's even more boring, and he has somewhat less name recognition.

3. Michele Bachmann: 11.2%. She's batshit insane, but she's not boring at all. If the Republicans decide on the most charismatic candidate, it would be her, but she is also very polarizing. Though the tea party loves her, the silent majority (ALERT: Nixon term) of Republicans are not as excited about her, partially because they're misogynist, but mostly because she's batshit insane.

4. Herman Cain: 6.3%.

5. Rick Santorum: 5.1%. Who? Nobody has ever heard of him, but he's radical and crazy and doesn't have much charisma either. Not a winning combination.

6. Ron Paul: 3.6%. He has a lot of support, but he is distinctly libertarian. I don't think that enough Republicans are okay with heroin legalization to vote him in, but he gets reelected in his district, as does his son, so he's got something.

7. Gary Johnson: 2.1%. He doesn't appear to be taking this very seriously, and it could really hurt him, as he has shot himself in the foot a bit, and people don't know him, leaving it to the media to report on him, and they won't be so kind. So if he wants a chance, he needs to come in full force.

8. Newt Gingrich: .001%. Seriously, does anyone like him?

9. Fred Karger: .0000001%. You chose the wrong party, Mr. Karger.

10. John C. Calhoun: .0000000000001%. Don't count him out yet!

Other: 3.0989998999999%

Odds of beating Obama should he or she win the nomination:

Romney: 1:7. He's a pretty strong character, but he doesn't have the dynamic campaigning ability that Obama has. In addition, as racism declines in America, interestingly enough, the support of religion, and especially Mormonism, is diminishing, and so I don't see us electing a Mormon president.

Pawlenty: 1:2. He is boring, but he hasn't shot himself in the foot, and he's not Mormon. There is plenty of dislike for Obama, and very little dislike for Pawlenty. But if he doesn't get a personality, he's screwed.

Bachmann: 1:54. She is too polarizing. She'll split the Republican party and that never wins.

Cain: 1:28.

Santorum: 1:13. If he plays his cards right, he could strike a balance. One wrong move, though, could derail him.

Paul: 1:5,000,000. Even if the party would stick together under Bachmann, they sure wouldn't under Paul. I could almost guarantee a socially conservative third party candidate who would be a deal breaker for Paul.

Johnson: 1:4. He's less radical than Santorum, giving him a bit of a benefit, but we'll have to see if his campaign goes anywhere.

Gingrich: 1:334,226. He's already destroyed himself.Karger: 1:???. He's much more liberal than Obama, so we would see some weird voting patterns. But I don't think we have to worry about him.

Calhoun: 1:5. Would be 5:1 if Calhoun wasn't dead.

So, all and all, Obama has pretty good chances because the Republicans all suck, but I'm not taking it for granted.