Well, as you know, I would never post twice in the same day unless I had a very good reason to. And a very good reason, I have indeed. Yes, I read a very interesting article on the Daily Kos, which I think warranted good enough reason to change my odds. I won't change the presidential odds, because I don't think those are changed significantly by this argument, but this very well thought-out article gives me reason to change my odds. If he is right, 4 MORE YEARS, BITCHEZZZZZZZ!!!!!!! Yes, that's right, he laid out the argument that Michele will win the primary. I completely agree with some of his points. Others, I'm not so sure about, but I'll buy. In a nutshell, he lays out the argument that she will win Iowa and Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire, but there are a lot of very conservative states as well as caucus states in the early few, and caucus states tend to go for the more socially conservative candidate because of the demographics of the voters. Mitt Romney is, all and all, a pretty moderate Republican (he is, after all, from Massachusetts), and he'll get grilled for passing what is basically exactly the same as "Obamacare," so he'll suffer tremendously in the more conservative states, and, according to the writer of this article, the more moderate states have suffered a pretty good blow to their delegation, and as a result, Michele should be able to pull it out. If you want to see the article, here it is: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/06/27/988434/-Why-Michele-Bachmann-will-be-the-GOP-nominee
As of now, my ranking of who will win the primary:
1. Michele Bachmann: 48.4%.
2. Mitt Romney: 18.1%.
3. Tim Pawlenty: 14.2%.
4. Ron Paul: 6.3%.
5. Rick Santorum: 6.2%
6. Herman Cain: 2.2%..
7. Gary Johnson: 1.3%.
8. Jon Huntsman: 0.7%
9. Newt Gingrich: .0000001%.
10. Fred Karger: .000000001%.
11. Jefferson Davis: .00000000001%. They probably would if he wasn't dead.
Other: 2.59999989899%
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